“Surprising”: Immigrant women have fewer children than women of Danish origin. Does politics have anything to do with it?

“It shows that it is utter nonsense for someone to come out and say that immigrants from non-Western countries and their children will take over and soon become the majority here at home.”

Associate Professor Emeritus and Demographic Researcher at Roskilde University for Berlingske

This afternoon, Videnskab published a report on the fact that immigrant women from Middle Eastern and African countries have fewer children than women of Danish origin, based on new calculations by Statistics Denmark.

This trend includes women from Syria, Afghanistan and Somalia, who came to Denmark from countries where the birth rate ranges between 2.7 and 6.3 children per woman.

In Denmark, each had an average of 1.4 children – what the report later calls the fertility rate – in 2023 as part of the “non-Western immigrant” group.

In the same year, the fertility rate among women of Danish origin was 1.6 – exactly the same rate as among the descendants of non-Western immigrants.

This is a “surprising” development, according to Christian Albrecht Larsen, a professor of social sciences at Aalborg University, where he has conducted research on the relationship between immigrants and the welfare state.

“Traditionally, non-Western immigrants have led to higher birth rates in Denmark. Now they have almost the same fertility rate as Danish women,“ he tells Videnskab.dk.

In 1993, non-Western immigrant women in Denmark had an average of 3.4 children. This means that the number of children born by age 30 has dropped by more than half.

The fertility crisis includes non-Western immigrants

This trend has been described before. As early as 2022, the Kristeligt Dagblad newspaper noted that the curves had “crossed over” and that immigrant women now had “fewer children than Danish women.”.

Since then, many media outlets have followed suit, and Henrik Toft Jensen, Associate Professor Emeritus and demographer at Roskilde University, told Berlingske:

“It shows that it is utter nonsense for someone to come out and say that immigrants from non-Western countries and their children will take over and soon become the majority here at home.”

That was in 2022. Since then, fertility has declined even further.

Peter Valsen, a research professor at the Rockwool Foundation with a focus on children and fertility, told Videnskab.dk: “For me, it is not so surprising, because I have followed the trend towards fewer children, both globally and in Denmark.”.

There is currently a so-called "fertility crisis" in most parts of the world. Birth rates are declining, and in more and more countries, so few children are being born that the population cannot support itself in large numbers—a trend that includes immigrants as well.

“When you move to a new country, you generally fall into the same patterns that apply in the country in question with regard to family formation,” Peter Walsin explained in his immediate commentary on the figures.

In March 2024, he helped publish a study on the increasing reluctance of Danes to have children. The conclusion was that women, particularly those from lower-income groups, were driving the statistics and choosing to have fewer children than before.

Peter Valsen emphasizes that the birth rate of immigrants has not yet been analyzed, and therefore he cannot offer definitive explanations. However, in collaboration with Laust Hvas Mortensen of Statistics Denmark and the University of Copenhagen, he is currently investigating the possible reasons for this trend.

Four possible reasons for declining fertility among immigrants

Here are some of the explanations that researchers point to:

The baby boom is over: First, this is perhaps what demographers call “migration fertility high”; that you usually postpone having children if you are about to migrate, and only have them after you arrive in the new country.

Therefore, fewer children are being born today because of the declining number of non-Western immigrants coming to the country.

Peter Walssen says: “We saw a huge influx of migrants from Syria during the first decade of the 21st century, and they are probably about to finish having children now.”.

“When you first migrate, you then settle down and start a family. But it doesn’t take long for migrants to start looking like everyone else,“ says Laust Hvas Mortensen, professor of epidemiology at the University of Copenhagen.

More difficult economic conditions: Non-Western immigrants are also affected by rising inflation and increasing inequality in society.

The role of policy measures in the decline of fertility (reproduction) among immigrants

In addition, a number of politically motivated measures have been implemented, which can particularly affect immigrants’ willingness and opportunities to have children, including the 24-year rule and the 225-hour rule. .

Christian Albrecht Larsen from Aalborg University says: “It has become more difficult to allow women in the family to return home to receive cash assistance – and this may have an impact on the number of children they have, as they have less time to care for them.”.

Higher level of education: Another possible reason is the higher level of education among non-Western immigrant women and their descendants.

Peter Valcin says: “It may be difficult for you to find a partner who is like you in thinking.”.

“Men from non-Western immigrant communities and their descendants have not followed women in terms of access to higher education, and we know from other studies that this weakens a woman’s desire to form a marriage with them.”.
General cultural adaptation to the welfare state:
“When you move to another country, there is a cultural adaptation to the new country. Peter Valsen says: “In Denmark, it is often about being less dependent on the children, both at work and when they grow up and need help.”.
This is the same trend that Christian Albrecht Larsen found in his study of the relationship with the welfare state.

He says: “Non-Western immigrants support the social welfare model in the Nordic countries and the way it is structured.”.

“For example, gender norms adapt to the culture of the majority. So, even if you come from culturally conservative areas in Turkey or Iran, you start to support women in the labor market and the attitude that it is acceptable to send your children to an institution.”.

More immigrants are needed to maintain population levels.

Kristian Albrecht Larsen describes the decline in fertility among immigrants as a challenge, because immigration in the past helped to "stabilize the population" with a birth rate that was relatively higher than that of native Danes.

This trend now appears to have ended. Figures show that immigrants are as much a part of the fertility crisis as anyone else in Danish society.

Therefore, we must increase the flow of immigrants to the country if we want to maintain Denmark’s current population of about six million.

Statistical figures in Denmark

For the fourth year in a row, we are having fewer children, but how bad is the situation for Denmark?
It may be difficult to predict the exact number required, partly because fertility rates among immigrants are undergoing significant changes as they are now.

This is what Lisbeth Harbo, senior advisor at Statistics Denmark, tells us.

“When we make population projections, we do so based on projections of how many immigrants will come and how many children each will have. Because that number changes, the population projections will also change.”.

Statistics Denmark has already revised its projections regarding the proportion of the population that will consist of non-Western immigrants and their descendants. In 2016, it was projected that by 2060 there would be 849,000 people from this background, representing 131,000 people of mixed ancestry.

But in 2023, this number was lowered in new projections to 640,000 immigrants and non-Western descendants, and less than 12% of the total Danish population.