According to DR, the first public opinion polls at the start of the 2026 Danish parliamentary election campaign showed a significant decline for the Venstre party, while the parties of the Red Bloc are close to achieving a parliamentary majority, according to a poll conducted by Epinion for the Danish Broadcasting Corporation.
Early survey outlines the competition
The Danes launched their first full day of election campaigning after Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called for parliamentary elections. In this context, the Danish Broadcasting Corporation (DR) published the results of the first opinion poll of the campaign, conducted by Epinion on February 26, immediately after the election announcement.
The DR website report stated that the results of the measurement do not bring good news for the leader of the Venstra party, Troels Lund Poulsen, who announced last night his candidacy for the position of Prime Minister.
Finstra's decline and Liberal Alliance's gain
The poll showed Venstre receiving 8.9 percent of the vote, compared to 9.9 percent in the last DR survey conducted in January. Converting this to parliamentary seats, the result is 16 seats.
The report noted that the party had recorded 11.5 percent in November, coinciding with the municipal elections, its best result since the 2022 elections, when it received 13.3 percent of the votes.
In contrast, the Liberal Alliance party made significant gains, securing 10.2 percent of the vote and surpassing Venstre in electoral size. The report also noted that party leader Alex Vanopslagh declared his readiness to assume the premiership should the results yield a sufficient majority.
The red bloc is approaching the majority threshold.
DR reported that Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen stated that she does not wish to decide on the shape of the next government in advance, confirming her ability to envision a new centrist government or a government led by the Red Bloc parties.
The poll showed that the parties of the Red Bloc – the Social Democrats (Socialdemokratiet), the Socialist People's Party (SF), the Alternative (Alternative), the Unity Alliance (Enhedslisten), and the Social Liberal Party (Radikale Venstre) – are very close to a parliamentary majority, with a combined total of 87 seats out of 179, while a majority requires 90 seats.
Despite the bloc's approach to a majority, this was not due to the advance of the Social Democratic Party (Socialdemokratiet), which fell from 21.6 percent in the January poll to 20.8 percent in this survey, equivalent to 37 seats, compared to the 50 seats the party won in the 2022 elections.
In contrast, the SF, Enhedslisten (Unity Alliance) and Alternative parties recorded gains in support rates.
All parties surpass the electoral threshold.
The report noted that all parties included in the survey exceeded the electoral threshold, even when accounting for the margin of statistical error.
The Borgernes Parti party had previously shown it would not enter parliament, while the Alternative party (Alternative) fell below the electoral threshold last December. However, both parties are projected to win five seats each in this poll.
Lucke is a candidate to play a crucial role.
The report also discussed the position of the Moderaterne party, led by Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, which, according to DR, has benefited from a recent surge in popularity due to the situation regarding Greenland.
The January poll indicated that the party had jumped to 4.6 percent after falling below the threshold of 1.5 percent in December. In the new poll, the figure rose to 5.7 percent, equivalent to 10 parliamentary seats.
The report explained that Lars Løkke Rasmussen is running again on the basis of forming a cross-bloc government, and given the possibility that both camps will need crucial seats to form a majority, he may play a pivotal role in the negotiations to form the next government.
When counting the seats of the Blue Bloc alone, which includes Venstre, the Conservatives, the Danmarksdemokraterne, the Liberal Alliance, and the Danish People's Party, the total number of seats is 73.
Survey methodology and margin of error
Epinion based its survey on 2,012 completed interviews with Danes aged 18 and over, 1,576 of whom, or 78 percent, stated their party preference.
The company conducted the interviews by telephone and through electronic questionnaires within an online survey board on February 26.
The maximum margin of statistical error in the overall results was plus or minus 2.7 percentage points, in addition to an extra degree of uncertainty due to the survey being conducted in just one day, according to the DR website.
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